A new round of polling for the 2028 race has dropped, and for Republicans who still hope to steer the party back to its pre-Trump roots, the numbers are nothing short of devastating. The latest Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll from the New Hampshire Institute of Politics shows Vice President JD Vance not merely leading the GOP field, but towering over it. If New Hampshire Republicans were casting ballots today, Vance would win the primary in a landslide, leaving every would-be challenger scrambling for relevance. The message from voters could not be clearer: the MAGA movement hasn’t dimmed or softened — it has solidified — and JD Vance has become its unmistakable standard-bearer going into 2028.
The poll surveyed 2,112 registered New Hampshire voters between November 18 and 19, 2025, using randomly selected cell-phone numbers aligned with the state’s demographics. With a margin of error of ±2.1%, the survey is anything but flimsy. When asked who they would support if the GOP primary were held today, 57% of Republican respondents chose Vance. Meanwhile, Democrats remain fractured, with Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom still dividing their party’s base and failing to capture a unified coalition. The contrast is striking: Republicans appear remarkably aligned, while Democrats continue to search for direction.
New Hampshire’s political independence has always made it a difficult state to read; the electorate often acts unpredictably and resists marching in step with national party expectations. Yet this time, the signal from Republican voters is surprisingly straightforward. JD Vance is their candidate — and no amount of insistence from GOP insiders longing for the “old ways” seems likely to change that. For nearly a decade, political commentators, establishment strategists, and former Bush-era officials have tried to resurrect the argument that the party must abandon Trump-style populism and return to a more traditional brand of conservatism. But election cycles, polling trends, and grassroots sentiment have all shown otherwise, and this new data only reinforces that point. New Hampshire Republicans are largely unmoved by media criticism of Trump and unfazed by the insistence that the party must revert to Bush-era priorities. Instead, they are overwhelmingly rallying behind the man widely seen as Trump’s successor — someone who advances the MAGA message while presenting it through a younger, sharper, more polished lens.
Vance’s commanding position is not accidental. Several key forces explain why he’s resonating so strongly. First, he offers continuity for voters who want the Trump movement to carry on, while avoiding the sense of repeating the past. He shares Trump’s populist worldview but brings a different generational style. Second, his appeal spans multiple factions: loyal MAGA voters, working-class Republicans, younger conservatives tired of old-guard politics, and voters who oppose foreign adventurism. Third, some Republicans who support Trump’s policies but are tired of the perpetual storms surrounding him see Vance as a calmer, steadier alternative with the same ideological backbone. And fourth, his role as vice president has given him a constant national platform — the kind of visibility that other potential candidates would need years to build.
The candidates who aren’t connecting with voters seem trapped in a political past the GOP base has clearly moved on from. Though the poll summary didn’t break down each rival’s numbers, Vance’s 57% leaves little doubt: establishment figures and moderate throwbacks are miles behind. Politicians hoping to revive an older model of Republicanism — defined by corporate-friendly economics, aggressive foreign interventions, and gentler cultural messaging — are finding almost no audience. The base has evolved dramatically since 2016, and the voters who now define the party have little interest in returning to the old framework.
Democrats don’t appear to be capitalizing on GOP unity, either. Their voters remain split between Buttigieg and Newsom, with neither emerging as a consensus choice. Some Democrats want a more progressive candidate, some want a centrist, and many are looking for someone entirely new. This internal division underscores a party facing an identity struggle at the very moment Republicans seem more unified than they have been in years.
New Hampshire’s influence is far larger than its population suggests. A dominant showing there builds momentum, boosts donor confidence, pressures weaker candidates to drop out, and shapes national perception of who the real frontrunner is. For Vance to command such an overwhelming lead this early — nearly three years before the election cycle fully begins — suggests something beyond routine polling noise. It points to the possibility that barring dramatic changes, he may be exceptionally difficult to challenge.
For nearly a decade, analysts predicted the Trump era would prove temporary — that the party would eventually “snap back” to its old identity. They expected Trump’s rise to be a momentary disruption rather than a lasting transformation. Yet here the party stands, still deeply aligned with the populist movement he ignited, now rallied behind a successor who has embraced its core ideas with discipline and intellectual clarity. Far from fading, the realignment has only strengthened, and JD Vance’s lead in New Hampshire is one more confirmation of that trajectory.
In short, the poll doesn’t merely show Vance ahead — it shows him dominating. It shows Republicans consolidating around a single vision and a single successor. It shows the traditional GOP establishment losing its influence rather than reclaiming it. And more than anything, it shows that the MAGA era is nowhere near its end. If New Hampshire voters are any indication, they see 2028 not as the conclusion of a political movement, but as its next chapter.
