Voting rights groups supporting the Democratic Party are preparing for a potential crisis if the U.S. Supreme Court weakens a key provision of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), one of the nation’s most significant civil rights laws. The case at the center of concern is Louisiana v. Callais, which could determine the future of Section 2 of the VRA, prohibiting redistricting plans that make it harder for racial minorities to vote. Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund warned that limiting or eliminating Section 2 would allow Republican-controlled legislatures to redraw as many as 19 congressional districts in their favor. A new analysis shared exclusively with Politico found 27 congressional seats nationwide that could be reshaped to benefit Republicans if current legal and political conditions persist, with 19 directly tied to the potential loss of Section 2 protections.

LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, said that undermining Section 2 would “clear the way for a one-party system where power serves the powerful and silences the people.” Republicans have long sought to curb Section 2, arguing that it unfairly favors Democrats by protecting minority voters in districts with significant Democratic populations. While the Supreme Court has rejected such claims in the past, voting rights advocates worry that Louisiana v. Callais could mark a turning point. Democrats might theoretically gain in heavily Democratic states with VRA protections, but analysts say such opportunities would be limited compared with the broader advantage Republican legislatures could gain through redistricting.

The potential weakening of Section 2 could have major consequences for congressional representation, especially in the South. States such as Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi could see Democrats lose seats, while others like Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida might retain at least one Democratic member but with significantly reduced influence. With Republicans already pursuing mid-cycle redistricting in several states, Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter are urging Democrats to implement an “aggressive and immediate” strategy to counter these moves and protect minority voters’ ability to elect candidates of their choice.