Artificial intelligence has begun to play a role in political forecasting, with analysts and content creators exploring its potential to simulate election outcomes. Recently, the Grok AI chatbot, developed by Elon Musk, was used in an informal exercise to model the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The exercise incorporated publicly available data, including early polling, betting odds, and state-level projections, to produce a hypothetical electoral map for the next presidential race. While such simulations are not definitive predictions, they reflect how AI can aggregate and interpret large datasets to visualize potential scenarios in complex political contests.

The 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution bars any individual from being elected president more than twice, meaning Donald Trump is constitutionally ineligible to run in 2028. This rule shapes the potential field of candidates and eliminates any incumbent advantage Trump might have held in a subsequent election. With Trump out of the running, attention has turned to other high-profile figures from both major political parties who could emerge as candidates. Political analysts and AI simulations alike have highlighted several potential contenders, reflecting ongoing interest in how the Republican and Democratic fields might evolve over the next two years.

On the Democratic side, several prominent figures are considered potential candidates. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has consistently ranked high in early polling among Democrats, while California Governor Gavin Newsom and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg are also frequently mentioned. Other potential Democratic contenders include Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Senator Cory Booker, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Early polling data suggests Harris is often viewed as the leading Democratic contender, though support is far from uniform, and much can change between now and the primaries.

For Republicans, the field is similarly varied, with potential candidates including author and former venture capitalist JD Vance, Donald Trump Jr., Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, political commentator Robert F. Kennedy Jr., former Ambassador Nikki Haley, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Among these figures, JD Vance has received attention as a potential frontrunner in the post-Trump era, though he has publicly emphasized that he is focused on his current work and has not officially declared a campaign. Early polling and political analysis indicate a wide range of possible outcomes depending on which candidates formally enter the race.

The AI simulation conducted by Grok modeled a hypothetical matchup between JD Vance and Kamala Harris, producing a state-by-state electoral map that allocated hypothetical electoral votes to each candidate. According to the simulation, Vance carried several traditional Republican strongholds across the Midwest and South, while Harris retained support in established Democratic regions, including the West Coast and parts of the Northeast. The model suggested that swing states such as Minnesota and New Hampshire could be pivotal in determining the overall electoral outcome. While these results are illustrative, they are not predictive; they reflect one possible scenario based on early polling and are highly sensitive to changes in voter sentiment, candidate participation, and national events over the coming years.

Political figures themselves have weighed in on the possibility of entering the 2028 race. JD Vance has indicated he is primarily focused on his current responsibilities, though he has acknowledged the potential for future consideration. Senator Marco Rubio has suggested he would support Vance if he chooses to run, reflecting internal discussions within the Republican Party about post-Trump leadership. On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris has expressed interest in continuing public service, leaving open the possibility of a presidential run, while Gavin Newsom has also signaled interest in seeking higher office under certain circumstances. Early statements from candidates underscore that the field remains fluid and undecided.

Ultimately, the use of AI to simulate the 2028 election provides an example of how technology can analyze large datasets and visualize potential political outcomes. However, experts caution that these simulations are not forecasts and cannot account for the myriad factors that influence real-world elections, including voter turnout, campaign strategy, unexpected events, and evolving public opinion. While AI models such as Grok can offer insight into trends and potential scenarios, the actual election outcome will depend on the complex dynamics of the political process, candidate decisions, and voter behavior. Observers should interpret AI-generated results as exploratory exercises rather than definitive predictions.