Rising geopolitical tension in recent years has led many Americans to quietly wonder what a large-scale global conflict might look like and how it could affect life at home. Although no credible evidence suggests that a world war is imminent, public anxiety has grown amid wars abroad, strained alliances, and sharper rhetoric between major powers. Campaign messaging from Donald Trump has at times emphasized keeping U.S. troops out of foreign conflicts, yet debates over policy toward nations such as Venezuela and Iran, as well as renewed strategic competition with Russia and China, have fueled broader discussions about global stability. For most people, the concern is less about a specific headline and more about the cumulative sense that the international order feels more fragile than it once did. Against that backdrop, conversations about worst-case scenarios—including which U.S. cities might be targeted in a hypothetical World War III—have increasingly circulated online and in media commentary.
Experts consistently caution that such discussions are speculative and should not be mistaken for predictions. Nuclear strategy is built largely on deterrence: the idea that the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear exchange prevent it from happening in the first place. Still, analysts sometimes explore hypothetical targeting strategies to explain how military planners think. Nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein of the Stevens Institute of Technology has publicly discussed how potential adversaries might prioritize targets differently depending on their objectives. If the goal were to cripple the United States’ ability to retaliate, an attacker might focus on nuclear command centers, missile silos, submarine bases, and bomber installations. If the objective were symbolic impact or economic disruption, densely populated cities or financial hubs could become targets. Importantly, these scenarios are analytical tools used to understand deterrence dynamics—not forecasts of actual events. They illustrate how strategic value, rather than population size alone, often determines military significance.
That framework places several lesser-known communities in discussions about vulnerability because of their proximity to critical military infrastructure. For example, Great Falls is located near Malmstrom Air Force Base, which oversees a network of intercontinental ballistic missile silos. Similarly, Cheyenne sits near Francis E. Warren Air Force Base, another key missile command installation. In Utah, Ogden and Clearfield are close to Hill Air Force Base, a major logistics and maintenance center supporting advanced weapons systems. These cities are not household names in geopolitical debates, yet their strategic importance derives from the military assets nearby. Analysts note that targeting such facilities in a first strike scenario would aim to weaken retaliatory capacity, not necessarily to cause maximum civilian casualties—though civilians would inevitably be affected in any such catastrophe.
Other communities frequently mentioned in strategic analyses include Shreveport, located near Barksdale Air Force Base, home to long-range bomber aircraft; Omaha, adjacent to Offutt Air Force Base, a central hub for U.S. Strategic Command; and Colorado Springs, which hosts NORAD, responsible for aerospace warning and defense. In the Pacific, Honolulu holds longstanding strategic significance due to its concentration of naval and air assets, shaped in part by the legacy of Pearl Harbor. Meanwhile, Albuquerque is near Kirtland Air Force Base, associated with nuclear weapons storage and research. These locations illustrate how military geography shapes theoretical targeting maps more than sheer population size does.
At the same time, analysts acknowledge that in any total war scenario, symbolic and economic centers could also be considered high-value targets. Washington, D.C., as the seat of federal government, represents political leadership and command authority. Major metropolitan areas such as New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, and Seattle are often cited because of their economic output, port facilities, technology sectors, or financial markets. The destruction of such cities would have global economic repercussions extending far beyond U.S. borders. However, defense experts reiterate that modern deterrence strategy is designed precisely to prevent such scenarios from materializing. The presence of layered missile defense systems, submarine-based deterrents, and international treaties reflects decades of effort to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic escalation.
Ultimately, conversations about which cities “would be first targets” reveal more about public anxiety than about imminent plans. Strategic experts stress that nuclear conflict remains highly unlikely because it would produce consequences too devastating for any rational actor to accept. Diplomatic channels, intelligence monitoring, and military-to-military communications exist to prevent misunderstandings from spiraling into disaster. While global tensions are real and deserve careful policy management, the leap from rivalry to world war is neither automatic nor inevitable. Public discussion of vulnerabilities can serve as a reminder of the importance of diplomacy, arms control, and responsible leadership. Rather than signaling that catastrophe is near, these analyses underscore why deterrence and international cooperation remain central to preserving stability in an uncertain world.
